实际实现用于计算环境温度变化情况下死亡时间的优化算法

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在基于尸体温度测量结果确定死亡时间时，可能会遇到外部环境温度发生变化的情况。在这种情况下，仅使用尸检时获取的环境温度值进行计算，可能导致死亡时间估算产生误差。然而，法医学中已经开发了一种方法，即使在初始信息不完全的情况下，也可以通过优化数学模型中用作预测变量的参数来进行计算。本文通过案例说明了这种方法的实际应用。

基于Powell优化算法，演示在尸检时的环境温度与尸体被发现期间的环境温度不同情况下，计算死亡发生时间的公式计算方法。基于Microsoft Excel程序创建了一个带有编号单元格公式的计算表，可用于法医学实践中的算法计算，并可在LibreOffice Calc或类似应用中进一 步使用。

文章实例演示尸体现场勘验，包括直肠温度测量及其结果，以及未采用个体化优化系数方法的死亡发生时间计算。基于实地案例分析表明，适当的专家评估方法，通过针对特定情境调整初始变量，可以显著提高死亡时间计算的准确性。这一点通过计算的死亡时间与刑侦调查结果的吻合得到了证实。

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作者简介

Alexey Yu. Vavilov

Izhevsk State Medical Academy

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: izhsudmed@hotmail.com
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9472-7264
SPIN 代码: 3275-3730

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

俄罗斯联邦, Izhevks

Airat А. Khalikov

Bashkir State Medical University

Email: airat.expert@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1045-5677
SPIN 代码: 1895-7300

MD, Dr. Sci. (Medicine), Professor

俄罗斯联邦, Ufa

Tatiana V. Naidenova

Izhevsk State Medical Academy

Email: abhasvar@mail.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7847-4706
SPIN 代码: 7697-5731

MD, Cand. Sci. (Medicine)

俄罗斯联邦, Izhevks

参考

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  2. Nedugov GV. Mathematical modeling of corpse cooling: Monograph. Kazan: Buk; 2021. 198 p. (In Russ.) EDN: NSTMKO
  3. Vavilov AYu, Viter VI. The validity of some modern mathematical models of postmortem cooling of the human body. Sudebno-meditsinskaia ekspertiza = Forensic medical expertise. 2007;50(5):9–12. EDN: IBOISF
  4. Vavilov AYu, Belykh SA, Shved EF. Mathematical simulation of the corpse’s temperature changes during exposure of a direct solar radiation to diagnose a postmortem interval. Sudebno-meditsinskaia ekspertiza = Forensic medical expertise. 2023;66(6):18–23. EDN: IJTJZD doi: 10.17116/sudmed20236606118
  5. Henssge C, Madea B. Estimation of the time since death. Forensic Sci Int. 2007;165(2-3):182–184. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2006.05.017
  6. Kulikov VA. Practical methodology for measuring DNS using the regular thermal regime method. Sovremennyye voprosy sudebnoy meditsiny i ekspertnoy praktiki. 1998;(Х):115–120. (In Russ.)
  7. Vavilov AYu, Malkov AV. Taking into account the "temperature plateau" as a condition for increasing the accuracy of diagnosing how long ago a person died. Meditsinskaya ekspertiza i pravo. 2012;(1):14–16. (In Russ.) EDN: OXWMAN
  8. Nedugov GV. Finite element assessment of the effect of open penetrating craniocerebral trauma on the postmortem temperature field of the head. Vestnik meditsinskogo instituta "Reaviz": Reabilitatsiya, vrach i zdorov'ye. 2022;(2):125–131. EDN: XLCEWK doi: 10.20340/vmi-rvz.2022.2.ICTM.1
  9. Shved EF, Novikov PI Application of a mathematical model of the process of changing the temperature of a corpse in diagnosing the duration of death under variable environmental conditions. Sudebno-meditsinskaia ekspertiza = Forensic medical expertise. 1991;34(2):5–7. (In Russ.)
  10. Shved EF. Modeling of post-mortem thermodynamics when establishing the age of death under conditions of changing ambient temperature [dissertation abstract]: 14.00.24. Place of protection: Russian Centre for Forensic Medical Examination; 2006. 24 р. (In Russ.)
  11. Kulikov VA, Konovalov EA, Vavilov AYu. Optimization approach to clarify the duration of death in forensic medical practice. Problemy ekspertizy v meditsine. 2009;9(1):8–10. (In Russ.) EDN: OKFBXB
  12. Viter VI, Vavilov AYu, Babushkina KA, Khokhlov SV. The work procedure of a doctor-forensic expert when examining a corpse at the place of its discovery: A training manual. Izhevsk; 2016. 88 p. (In Russ.)
  13. Kildyushov ЕМ, Vavilov АYu, Kulikov VА. Diagnosis of time of death using thermometric method in early postmortal period (new medical technology). Bulletin of forensic medicine. 2012;1(1):19–23. EDN: PIVYGP
  14. Panteleev AV, Letova TA. Optimization methods in examples and problems: Textbook for university students. Moscow: Vysshaya shkola; 2002. 544 p. EDN: SBRINH

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2. Fig. 1. Graphical representation of the optimization algorithm for calculating the time of death using the thermometric method.

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3. Fig. 2. Sheet with formulas for calculating time since death based on the optimization algorithm.

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4. Fig. 3. Result of applying the optimization algorithm.

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